Antioch Ca Real Estate Investors – When the Numbers do not Equal the Facts!
As a Realtor working with Investors in Antioch Ca and Beyond I often get a gut feeling about the market and what is happening in it; but then I run the numbers and they say something else.
A popular home with Investors in Antioch Ca are the single story, 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom, 2 car garage home. Generally for a buy and hold Investor the older homes built in the 60's to the early 90's offers a great price for a solid home.
My impression is that the prices on these type of homes dropped in early 2010 but over the summer the prices tightened up. I am constantly looking at market reports and pricing trends, but there are lots of sub markets. All Real Estate is very local and different types of homes can be trending different directions. My opinion was formed by what homes my investors were finding and buying.
Well I took a hard look at the numbers for sale of 4/2 single story homes in Antioch with 2 car garages built before 1995. (Talk about a niche!) I looked at the sales for the prior 4 quarters compared to what is on the market now. Based on a price per SF basis the trend was as follows:
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4th Quarter 2010: $117.34
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1st Quarter 2011: $105.48
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2nd Quarter 2011: $107.89
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3rd Quarter 2011: $101.92
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Active: $105.87
Other number like average and medium price reflect the same trend. Although sales are up and down it is about 13 homes per month.
The price trends certainly reflect the price drop off I saw, and a slight tightening up of prices; but not the long term tightening and price adjustment I felt. In fact the numbers show prices dropping again.
So why the difference? At some point you cannot break down the numbers enough to figure it out. You can only go on the gut reaction from looking at hundreds of homes. The price drop reflects the drop in the quality of some of the homes sold. My clients do not mind fixer uppers, but there are a lot of lower end properties on the market that take more work. I suspect the value of Like for Like is holding up fine.
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Gene,
Great post for investors. The information you have on real time changes in the market is invaluable.
Good speed with your Antioch home sales,
Steve
Pretty solid downward trend. (Nothing is ever perfectly smooth.) You will always have ups and downs like you said. Hope your clients appreciate your work.
The point is the numbers do not always tell the entire story. I think the quality of homes on the market has gone down.